However,
before we start claiming that the UK Jewish population has risen, we should be
conscious that these figures (both for 2011 and 2001) are just for England and
Wales. We don’t yet have 2011 data for Scotland or Northern Ireland, although regional
demographic trends suggest that the Jewish populations of both will have
declined somewhat since 2001, thereby potentially offsetting part of the small
increase we see for England and Wales.
Moreover,
neither of the numbers quoted above for England and Wales take into
consideration the undercount. The
religion question on the census form from which all this data is derived was
voluntary. People did not have to answer
it. So as in 2001, the 2011 figure needs
to be adjusted to account for that. We
know that in 2001 Jews chose not to answer the question in slightly higher
proportions than the UK population as a whole, but we don’t yet know the
proportions for 2011. Until further data
are released by the ONS next year, it is impossible to draw reliable
conclusions.
In
addition, people could identify themselves as Jewish by ethnicity on the census
form, and, in 2001, 2,594 people who did this did not identify themselves as Jewish by religion. The equivalent 2011 figure needs to be added
to the overall count, and even a small reduction from the 2001 number could
potentially affect the current picture of growth.
In
short, at this stage it is too early to draw any conclusions. Until it is possible to accurately calculate
the size of the undercount and add in the Scotland, Northern Ireland and
ethnicity figures, we should keep the champagne on ice.
Nevertheless,
it seems probable that the UK Jewish population has at least remained static
over the past ten years. This is an
extraordinary finding in and of itself.
The UK Jewish population has been declining for over half a century; it
reached its historical peak of approximately 410,000 in the mid-1950s, and has
contracted ever since, to an estimated 291,000 in 2001. The decline has been reflected in the titles
of books such as Wasserstein’s Vanishing Diaspora
and Sacks’s Will We Have Jewish
Grandchildren?, both of which capture the dominant narrative of recent
decades. The British Jewish community is
on its way out. Slowly but surely we are
withering away. Yet these data appear to
challenge that story. It seems we may
not be doing so badly after all.
The
question is, why? And the answer, while
still requiring more detailed data to really substantiate it, can begin to be
discerned by looking at what is going on in Jewish populations at the local and
regional levels. Three Local Authority
Districts in particular stand out: Hackney, Salford and Gateshead. Taken together, the Jewish population of
these three places – all centres of the haredi
population – has increased by 50% in just ten years. This corroborates with other data on haredim which show a doubling of numbers
over the past eighteen years, and probably can be largely explained by a simple
factor: babies. In many respects, the
demographic equation is very simple: if the number of births outstrips the
number of deaths, the population will grow.
And this is exactly what is going on in the UK’s haredi population in an extraordinary way. Household size figures capture it
perfectly. The average household size in
the UK is 2.4 people; in the haredi
population of Hackney, it is estimated to be 6.3.
In
contrast, other parts of the Jewish population are not faring so well. The combined populations of Harrow,
Redbridge, Camden, Westminster and Brent, all of which appeared in the top ten
Jewish population centres in 2001, have declined by 21%. Provincial communities show a similar pattern
– Leeds, Brighton and Hove, Liverpool and Southend-on-Sea have collectively
declined by 19%. The hypothesis in all
these cases is much the same: first, death rates outweigh birth rates, and
second, a proportion of the affiliated and engaged is migrating to the growing
centres of Jewish life, particularly Barnet and Hertsmere.
Other
factors are certainly at play, but when we look at these patterns together, it
seems possible that growth in the haredi
and strictly Orthodox sectors could be counterbalancing decline elsewhere. What
this means is that the character of the British Jewish population is changing,
and likely to become more Orthodox over time.
While long-term projections should be made with caution, it seems
entirely probable that the British Jewish community of the future will look
rather different to that of today.
This
has important policy implications for all Jewish charities, schools, synagogues
and local organisations. We remain a
small community – just 0.5% of the UK population – with limited human and
financial resources. How we deploy these
is critical to our future. Policy makers
at all levels should look at these data to inform their thinking and
planning. An empirical understanding of
Jewish population trends can help us to make good, informed decisions that both
honour our past and build our future.
As
more census data are released in the coming months, the scope to understand
community dynamics at the local level will become increasingly refined. The National Jewish Community Survey (NJCS),
a JPR project planned for early 2013, will add depth and nuance to our
collective understanding. By next
autumn, we will have sufficient access to both datasets to generate data tables
and charts to assist organisations working across the community. The UK Jewish community is extremely
fortunate to have access to data of this quality and accuracy – very few Jewish
communities worldwide are in our position.
Let’s make sure we use them well.
(Also published in The Jewish News, 20 December 2012)
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